An annual marketing plan usually starts with an empty calendar and a list of occasions: Valentine's Day, Easter, Mother's Day, Black Friday, Christmas. Every occasion gets a row, and in January somebody notices that half the rows were never used.
This post approaches annual planning from the other end: not from the list of occasions, but from what the market actually sent. The basis is 11,135 newsletters from 120 German online retailers, sent between 1 October 2025 and 31 August 2026, deliberately the same 120 retailers in each of the eleven months, so the curve shows how the market behaves and not how our panel grew.
Three findings up front, and all three contradict the list of occasions: 89 percent of all emails name no occasion, the loudest month is not November but August, and the median lead time before the biggest occasion of the year is four days.
Two limits first. We see what was sent, not how it performed: opens, clicks and revenue are not available to us. And we do not name the retailers, because this is about the patterns, not the senders.
The eleven months in numbers
All figures cover the German market and the same 120 retailers. "Per shop" is the monthly send frequency, the number you can hold against your own. The four middle columns classify each email: content without an offer, promotion with a mechanic, sale as clearance, special for sweepstakes or loyalty perks.
| Month | Emails | Per shop | Content | Promo | Sale | Special | With discount | With code |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2025 | 998 | 8.3 | 34.7 % | 29.7 % | 15.8 % | 19.3 % | 61.9 % | 22.5 % |
| November 2025 | 1,158 | 9.7 | 26.5 % | 28.3 % | 26.6 % | 18.6 % | 69.4 % | 20.4 % |
| December 2025 | 934 | 7.8 | 37.0 % | 26.6 % | 20.6 % | 15.8 % | 57.4 % | 15.5 % |
| January 2026 | 875 | 7.3 | 34.3 % | 28.5 % | 23.5 % | 13.7 % | 58.6 % | 16.1 % |
| February 2026 | 839 | 7.0 | 39.6 % | 28.1 % | 18.7 % | 13.6 % | 55.2 % | 16.2 % |
| March 2026 | 1,067 | 8.9 | 47.9 % | 22.8 % | 18.0 % | 11.3 % | 47.6 % | 12.3 % |
| April 2026 | 964 | 8.0 | 47.8 % | 24.4 % | 16.2 % | 11.6 % | 46.9 % | 14.5 % |
| May 2026 | 1,062 | 8.9 | 47.5 % | 25.3 % | 16.7 % | 10.5 % | 46.5 % | 14.1 % |
| June 2026 | 986 | 8.2 | 42.7 % | 26.3 % | 19.7 % | 11.3 % | 51.6 % | 17.3 % |
| July 2026 | 1,046 | 8.7 | 36.6 % | 28.5 % | 18.7 % | 16.2 % | 53.9 % | 15.3 % |
| August 2026 | 1,206 | 10.1 | 38.7 % | 29.0 % | 15.3 % | 17.0 % | 47.3 % | 14.0 % |
Across all eleven months, 39.3 percent of emails are pure content, 27.0 percent promotions, 19.0 percent sale and 14.6 percent specials. The promotion share stays in a narrow band between 22.8 and 29.7 percent. What moves is the ratio of content to sale: 26.5 against 26.6 percent in November, 47.9 against 18.0 in March. Spring is the storytelling season, late autumn the clearance season.
The year has two peaks, and one is in no calendar
At week level the distribution is sharper than the monthly average. The strongest week is 20 to 26 October 2025 with 302 emails from 105 retailers, followed by the three weeks up to Black Week with 292, 286 and 284. The second peak sits ten months later: 24 to 30 August 2026 brings 287 emails, the two weeks before it 282 each. The weakest full week is Christmas week, 22 to 28 December, with 176.
The two peaks are built differently. The October peak is a run-up: advent calendars, Christmas decoration and the first Black Friday announcements land in the same weeks, often without saying so. A home and furniture retailer on Friday, 24 October 2025 at 10:34 am wrote: "Neue Saison, neues Zuhause, wir haben diese Angebote für dich vorbereitet." (New season, new home, we have prepared these offers for you.) The campaign record files it as a Black Friday promotion at up to 50 percent; the subject never uses the term.
The August peak has no occasion you could write into a calendar at all. In the three weeks from 10 to 30 August, only six of 851 subject lines mention the start of school and eight mention autumn. Anchor your plan to the list of occasions and you leave out the weeks in which the market is busiest.
Which occasions actually show up
Each email is assigned to one occasion as soon as the subject line or the campaign name mentions it. The right-hand column is the interesting one: the share of the 120 retailers that used the occasion at least once.
| Occasion | Emails | Retailers | Share of the 120 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Friday and Cyber Week | 331 | 95 | 79 % |
| Christmas and Advent | 287 | 93 | 78 % |
| Summer clearance | 117 | 60 | 50 % |
| Valentine's Day | 96 | 55 | 46 % |
| Easter | 86 | 55 | 46 % |
| Winter clearance | 85 | 51 | 43 % |
| New Year's Eve and New Year | 68 | 46 | 38 % |
| Mother's Day | 40 | 29 | 24 % |
| Singles Day | 37 | 29 | 24 % |
| Halloween | 36 | 24 | 20 % |
| Back to school | 18 | 14 | 12 % |
| Father's Day | 15 | 8 | 7 % |
| Whitsun | 7 | 6 | 5 % |
| Carnival | 4 | 4 | 3 % |
| Oktoberfest | 2 | 2 | 2 % |
| no occasion named | 9,906 | 120 | 100 % |
A clothing chain, Friday, 7 November 2025, 8:07 am. Subject: "Bis zu -40% auf ausgewählte Artikel." (Up to -40% on selected items.) Singles Day appears only in the campaign record. The conditions are tight: loyalty members only, app and web shop only, minimum order value 40 euros, until 11 November, sale items excluded.
A fashion and footwear retailer, Sunday, 9 November 2025, 6:58 am. Subject: "Singles Day: -22%." The number is the date, twice eleven. It is redeemed through a coupon that has to be activated per product before the basket, and does not combine with vouchers.
A beauty retailer, Monday, 10 November 2025, 6:52 am. The subject names 11 percent for Singles Day, the number in the date again. The code is valid on that single day and only on the products of one linked campaign page, with an exclusion list of more than 40 brands.
The reading: A list of occasions pretends every row is equal. They are not. Two occasions reach nearly four in five retailers, seven more sit between 20 and 50 percent, and from back to school onwards it drops into single digits: eight retailers run Father's Day, four Carnival, two Oktoberfest. That does not make a 7 percent occasion a bad one, quite the opposite, because the inbox there is empty. It only means you have no market habit behind you, just your own bet. Singles Day also shows how an occasion shapes the mechanic: 11, 22 and 20 percent are the most common numbers, because the date sets them.
Lead times are shorter than your planning cycle
For every occasion with a fixed date we looked at the emails from 120 days before to 14 days after. "Median" means half of all emails for that occasion went out later.
| Occasion | Date | Emails | First email | Earliest tenth | Median | After the date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halloween | 31 Oct 2025 | 36 | 23 days | 10 days | 1 day | 16.7 % |
| Singles Day | 11 Nov 2025 | 37 | 5 days | 4 days | 0 days | 5.4 % |
| Black Friday and Cyber Week | 28 Nov 2025 | 325 | 37 days | 19 days | 4 days | 16.9 % |
| Christmas | 24 Dec 2025 | 278 | 79 days | 48 days | 15 days | 6.5 % |
| New Year's Eve | 31 Dec 2025 | 65 | 26 days | 6 days | 1 day after | 52.3 % |
| Valentine's Day | 14 Feb 2026 | 82 | over 120 days | 14 days | 5 days | 7.3 % |
| Easter | 5 Apr 2026 | 79 | 94 days | 32 days | 7 days | 8.9 % |
| Mother's Day | 10 May 2026 | 40 | 32 days | 15 days | 5 days | 2.5 % |
| Father's Day | 14 May 2026 | 15 | 35 days | 8 days | 2 days | 0.0 % |
| Whitsun | 24 May 2026 | 7 | 19 days | 19 days | 0 days | 28.6 % |
A furniture mail order retailer, Monday, 6 October 2025, 5:48 am. The first Christmas email of the year, 79 days before Christmas Eve. It announces an advent calendar with 24 doors and carries no discount and no deadline: a pure content email whose only job is to be early in your head.
A drugstore chain, Monday, 13 October 2025, 11:02 am. Ten percent on advent calendars through an app coupon, redeemable once until 31 October, a 19-day window. The discount sits on a product nobody opens before December.
A broad-assortment mail order retailer, Monday, 20 October 2025, 6:23 am. The subject asks whether you have thought about Christmas yet. The mechanic is not a price but a deadline in the other direction: an extended return window until 31 January 2026, sent 65 days out.
The reading: Weeks separate the first email from the middle of the field. For Black Friday the first retailers open 37 days out, the earliest tenth sits at 19 days, and half of all emails go out in the final four days. For Christmas it is 79, 48 and 15 days. For an annual plan these are two decisions: when to be first, and when to ride the wave. And one detail almost always missing: 52.3 percent of New Year's Eve emails go out after the date, and around 17 percent of Black Friday and Halloween emails too. The aftermath is part of the occasion.
The 89 percent nobody plans
9,906 of the 11,135 emails name no occasion. They are not the remainder, they are the year, and they follow an order of their own: the week. 42 of the 120 retailers, a good third, run a fixed weekly slot with a recurring name, 369 emails in total.
An electronics retailer, Monday, 10 August 2026, 8:30 am. Subject: "Deine Deals der Woche sind da: Bis zu 55 % Ersparnis zur UVP auf Top-Technik!" (Your deals of the week are here: up to 55 % off list price on top tech.) Behind it sits a manufacturer week at up to 45 percent, the discount already deducted, the runtime specified to the minute.
A beauty and fashion retailer, Monday, 10 August 2026, 5:52 am and 3:54 pm. Same day, same voucher twice: 15 percent, app only, that day only. The morning email announces it, the evening email pulls it back.
A fashion retailer, Monday, 10 August 2026, 9:03 am. Subject: "Deine Auswahl: bis zu -40%." (Your selection: up to -40%.) The campaign name is an end of season, the runtime 22 days, the conditions name selected items.
The reading: The metronome of the year is not the occasion, it is the week. The weekday split says the same: the strongest day is Sunday with 17.1 percent of all emails, then Thursday with 16.1 and Wednesday with 15.3, the weakest Saturday with 9.7. On Sundays 108 of the 120 retailers send at least once, and 69.2 percent of those emails go out between 5 and 10 am. Plan only occasions and you have planned 11 percent of your sending year.
What to take into your annual plan
- Plan weeks, not just occasions. 89 percent of emails name no occasion. A plan made of occasion rows leaves nine out of ten send dates open.
- August is the loudest month, not November. 10.1 emails per shop against 9.7 in November and 7.0 in February, and that without an occasion.
- Sort your occasion list by participation. Two occasions reach around 79 percent of retailers; from back to school onwards it is 12 percent and less.
- Decide your lead time on purpose. For Black Friday, 33 days separate the first email from the median.
- Plan the aftermath. 52.3 percent of New Year's Eve emails and around 17 percent of Black Friday and Halloween emails go out after the date.
- Sunday morning is the biggest slot of the year. 17.1 percent of all emails, 69.2 percent of them between 5 and 10 am.
How we counted
The basis is the Reyo panel: newsletters from German online retailers that we receive and analyse as regular subscribers. The period runs from 1 October 2025 to 31 August 2026, eleven full months. From it we selected every retailer that sent at least one email in each of those months: 120 retailers with 11,135 emails. That restriction is the core of the analysis, because the panel grew during the period and a curve across all senders would report that growth as market movement. In the first two weeks of October some of these retailers are not yet covered continuously, so our statements about the weakest weeks rest on the Christmas and January weeks.
An email is a unique combination of sender, send time and subject line; emails with several offers count once. Occasions were counted through keywords in the subject line and the campaign name, and each email is assigned to exactly one occasion even if it names two. The lead-time table only looks at emails from 120 days before to 14 days after the date, which is why its counts sit slightly below the participation table. The discount share comes from the legacy discount field, filled continuously across the whole period, not from the newer enrichment fields that are only complete from summer 2026; we make no full-year statement about attributes whose detection changed in between.
Examples were chosen by their position in the year, not by the size of the retailer, and we name senders by sector. German subject lines stay in the original with a translation in brackets, quoted only where they do not reveal the sender and contain no first name; emojis are not reproduced and no voucher code appears verbatim.
What you need for this
A market average across 120 retailers tells you where the year has its peaks. It does not tell you when your five most important competitors start their advent calendar, and that is what belongs in a plan.
- Competitor Monitoring reads your competitors' newsletters, on-site promotions and ads, and records occasion, mechanic, runtime and lead time.
- Market Predictions projects from previous years which week the next run-up is due in.
- Campaign Planner puts your plan next to that expectation so you can see the empty weeks.
- The Q4 Guide 2026 pre-sorts the occasions of the fourth quarter.
The same data set at the level of discount depth is in Discount Benchmark: 29,128 Emails, One Median, and the send-time picture in When Do Competitors Send Emails?.
If you want to hold your annual plan against your own competitive set: book a demo.