When this post went out on 3 September, Black Friday on 27 November 2026 was 85 days away, twelve weeks and one day. How much of that is left, the clock below keeps counting. That sounds like plenty. It is not, once you look at when the market actually got going last year.
We read every newsletter that 222 German online shops sent between 1 October and 31 December 2025, 4,617 of them. The results are in the Q4 guide 2026, and Heiko Guksch published the eight theses behind it today in the OMR ContentHub (in German). This post turns them into a schedule: five phases, one decision each, and behind every decision the number that justifies it.
One caveat first, because it applies to everything below: we measure what was sent, not how it performed. We do not see competitors' opens, clicks or revenue. Wherever we derive a recommendation from what we observed, we say so.
Phase 1 · Now until the end of September: Fix your competitor set
The decision: Which five to ten shops will you really watch this quarter?
Most Q4 plans start with your own calendar. It is better to start with everyone else's. The single strongest finding from Q4 2025 is a timing finding, and you can only judge timing if you know who you are sending against.
A workable set is small: five to ten shops that serve the same audience and carry similar categories, plus two or three you measure yourself against even if they are a size bigger. More creates noise; fewer misses the move that comes in October.
Something else to pin down in these weeks: the quarter's occasions, with dates. For 2026 that is 1 November as the start of the Black Friday phase, Black Week from 23 to 29 November, Black Friday on the 27th, Cyber Monday on 30 November, and the start of the Christmas season, which sits somewhere between early and late November depending on the industry.
If you have your competitors' 2025 newsletter archives, now is the moment to go through them. Not for content, for dates: first promotional mail, mails per week, discount depth. That is the template you plan against in phase 3.
Phase 2 · 1 to 19 October: Decide the discount logic
The decision: How deep do you go, and with which mechanic?
This is where the guide clears up an assumption. In every phase of the quarter, October and Black Week alike, the median fixed discount sits at around 20 percent (4,617 newsletters, 222 shops, Q4 2025). The middle of the market does not move.
What moves is the top. The upper quartile of fixed discounts climbs from 25 to 33 percent in Black Week, and the share of offers at 30 percent or more doubles. In Black Week the market does not get deeper overall; it gets wider at the top.
For your planning that means: a fixed 25 percent already puts you above the median. Whether you go to 30 or 33 in Black Week is not a question of market position but of margin. And whether you communicate a fixed discount or "up to" at all is a decision of its own, because both sit side by side in the inbox and they are two different promises.
Industry matters more than the calendar here. In the Black Friday Benchmark 2026 (136 retailers, 10 industries, 3,361 newsletters, 1 November to 5 December 2025) the median discount ranges from 14 percent in beauty, on a small sample, and 15 percent in sports and pet supplies to 30 percent in groceries, furniture and eyewear. Your discount logic should follow your own industry row, not an overall figure that, sensibly, does not exist.
Phase 3 · From 20 October: Ramp up, do not wait
The decision: When do you switch to Q4 frequency?
This is the finding that moves most plans. From the week of 20 October the market runs at roughly two mails per shop per week, a good half more than at the end of September. And it holds that level for seven weeks, into December. Black Week is a content peak, not a volume peak. The volume is long there by the time it starts.
So whoever "opens the season" on 1 November is two weeks behind the market. Not dramatically behind, but behind: your shared customers' inboxes are already at Q4 density, and your first promotional mail lands in an environment that has settled in.
20 October 2026 is a Tuesday. If you need a number for the calendar: week 43 is when your send plan is at Q4 frequency, with content approved for it. Everything that needs sign-off therefore belongs in phase 2.
Phase 4 · November up to Black Week: Play the occasion
The decision: Do you start before 1 November or on the day itself?
The benchmark shows when the market opened the occasion in 2025: across all industries evaluated, the Black Friday promotional phase began on 1 November, 27 days before the day itself. And the guide shows what follows from that: shops that start before 1 November play the occasion with eight mails over five weeks. Shops that start on the day play it with one.
That is not a recommendation for eight mails. It is a description of the frequency your single mail competes against if you only send it on 27 November.
For the weekly rhythm, look at the clock. Sunday at 8 a.m. is the fullest hour of the entire quarter, 123 mails in the panel. 16 percent of all 4,617 mails go out on Sundays, 36 percent between 7 and 10 in the morning. On weekdays there is a second block in the afternoon around 4 p.m. Avoiding the fullest slot buys you room in the inbox. Whether it also buys opens we cannot measure; we only see density.
Phase 5 · 23 to 30 November: The week itself
The decision: When does your Black Friday mail go out, and is there a second one?
On Black Friday 2025, 84 of the 222 shops sent a mail for the day. 47 of them between 6 and 9 a.m. Only 9 followed up with a second mail the same day. Black Friday is a morning event: the market is done by nine.
Send at 11 and you send into an inbox your competitors filled three hours earlier. Send at 6 and you are early, but next to 46 others. There is no free hour here, only the choice between early in the crowd and late behind it.
The data does not argue for a second mail: 9 of 84 is a minority, and we do not know whether it paid off for them. What we do see: Black Week as a whole is already the seventh week at Q4 frequency. One mail on the day, cleanly timed, is the market norm.
After that comes Cyber Monday on 30 November, and then what the guide covers in its five remaining findings: the start of the Christmas season by industry, subject line length, specials, high-frequency senders.
The schedule on one page
| Phase | Period 2026 | Decision | The number behind it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 to 30 September | Competitor set: 5 to 10 shops | Timing is the strongest finding, and timing needs a reference |
| 2 | 1 to 19 October | Fix discount and mechanic | Median 20 % fixed, upper quartile 25 → 33 % in Black Week |
| 3 | from 20 October (week 43) | Ramp up to Q4 frequency | 2 mails per shop per week, seven-week plateau |
| 4 | 1 to 22 November | Open the occasion early | The 2025 promo phase began on 1 November, 27 days before the day |
| 5 | 23 to 30 November | One mail, in the morning | 47 of 84 shops between 6 and 9 a.m., 9 with a second mail |
All figures: Reyo newsletter panel, 222 German online shops, 4,617 newsletters, 1 October to 31 December 2025; industry values from the Black Friday Benchmark 2026, 136 retailers, 1 November to 5 December 2025.
What you need for it
The five decisions assume you can see what your competitor set sends, while it happens rather than in hindsight. That is what Reyo is built for: the watched shops' newsletters, push notifications, Meta ads and website promotions run into one feed, and the campaign calendar puts your own plan next to them. The numbers in this post come from the same panel.
The full guide with all eight findings and eight industry pages is a PDF behind a short form: Q4 in the inbox. The eight theses at a glance are in the guest article in the OMR ContentHub (German). And if you want to see what the competitor set from phase 1 looks like in practice, book a demo, with your own competitors instead of sample data.
Related posts: When do competitors send their emails? and Promotion timing strategies.